Prediction Table and Nomogram as Tools for Diagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Although ultrasonography (US)-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) is the most reliable diagnostic modality for evaluating thyroid nodules, 10% to 40% of FNAB samples yield indeterminate findings. The BRAF V600E mutation, a highly specific molecular marker for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), well known for its prognostic value, has dubious diagnostic value because of its low sensitivity. Novel strategies are clearly needed to distinguish PTC, which represents the majority of thyroid malignancies, from other thyroid nodules. The records of 3297 patients with surgically proven PTC were retrospectively reviewed. A prediction table and nomogram were designed using a combination of diagnostic parameters for US, FNAB, and the BRAF V600E mutation. For the nomogram, parameters were proportionally assigned 0 to 100 points according to their regression coefficient for PTC. The probability of PTC for thyroid nodules with intermediate-risk (IR) US and atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) FNAB was significantly dependent on BRAF V600E mutation status based on our prediction table (negative, 29.2% vs positive, 87.5%; P < 0.001). By our nomogram, the probability of PTC for thyroid nodules with IR US, AUS/FLUS FNAB, and positive BRAF V600E mutation was approximately 85% to 90%. We strongly recommend preoperative evaluation of the BRAF V600E mutation in indeterminate thyroid nodules. The prediction table and nomogram developed in this study could help clinicians and patients easily assess the probability of PTC in the preoperative period.